The Odds Favor a Solana (SOL) Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) Listing in the United States
A recent forecast from Polymarket, a popular cryptocurrency prediction platform, puts the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 at approximately 77%. However, according to Matthew Sigel, VanEck’s head of research, this estimate may be too conservative. In a post on the X platform, Sigel described Polymarket’s forecast as "underpriced," suggesting that the actual odds may be even higher.
Why the Optimism?
The optimism surrounding a Solana ETF listing in the US is not isolated to just one prediction market. Industry-wide expectations are also buoyant, following President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win. Pro-crypto Trump has expressed his desire to make America "the world’s crypto capital," which has been interpreted as a green light for more cryptocurrency-related listings.
How Prediction Markets Work
Prediction markets, like Polymarket, allow users to trade contracts tied to specific events. The prices of these contracts fluctuate dynamically based on expected outcomes, providing a real-time snapshot of market sentiment. According to Polymarket’s website, the odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 have increased to approximately 84% as of January 2.
The Road to Listing
In June, VanEck and rival asset manager 21Shares submitted proposals to list spot Solana ETFs in the US. However, their plans were reportedly challenged by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in August. The SEC expressed concerns that SOL qualified as a security rather than a commodity, which would require a different listing structure.
The Grantor Trust Structure
Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH) ETFs are the only two types of cryptocurrency ETFs permitted to trade on US exchanges, and they use an atypical "grantor trust" structure. This structure is typically designed for funds that passively hold a single type of commodity. Issuers argue that success may hinge on whether proposed Solana ETFs can conform to this structure.
Trump’s Presidential Win and the Green Light
Industry analysts see Trump’s presidential win as a green light for more than half a dozen proposed crypto ETFs waiting on regulatory approval to list in the US. In November, shortly after Trump’s victory in the US presidential race, Sigel reportedly said that the odds of the US greenlighting a SOL ETF in 2025 are now "overwhelmingly high."
The Rise of Polymarket
Polymarket is the most popular cryptocurrency betting platform, clocking nearly $2 billion in trading volume in December alone, according to data from Dune Analytics. During the US elections in November, betting platforms proved more accurate than traditional polling, forecasting not only Trump’s win but also his party’s sweep of the US House and Senate.
A Banner Year for Cryptocurrency Markets?
Bettors are wagering that 2025 will be a banner year for cryptocurrency markets, with BTC and ETH hitting all-time highs and several new types of crypto ETFs listing in the US. With the odds favoring a Solana ETF listing in the US, investors may want to take a closer look at this emerging market trend.
The Future of Cryptocurrency Laws
In related news, the magazine "How Crypto Laws Are Changing Across the World in 2025" explores the evolving regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies globally. As governments and regulators continue to adapt to the rapidly changing cryptocurrency space, investors would do well to stay informed about these developments.
Key Takeaways:
- The odds of a US Solana ETF listing in 2025 are estimated at approximately 77% by Polymarket.
- VanEck’s head of research, Matthew Sigel, believes the actual odds may be even higher.
- Industry-wide expectations are buoyant following President-elect Donald Trump’s November election win.
- Prediction markets provide a real-time snapshot of market sentiment and can be used to make informed investment decisions.
- The grantor trust structure may play a crucial role in determining whether proposed Solana ETFs can list in the US.
In conclusion, while there are still many challenges to overcome before a Solana ETF listing can occur in the US, the odds favoring this event suggest that it is likely to happen. As the cryptocurrency space continues to evolve and mature, investors would do well to stay informed about these developments and consider the potential opportunities presented by emerging market trends.
